Crises, Stabilizations, and Reforms: An Analysis of Structural Breaks in Latin American Economies (1950–2000)

Resumo

This paper identifies major structural breaks in the macroeconomic trajectories of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico between 1950 and 2000. Using real GDP and capital stock data from Penn World Table 10.01, it applies the Bai and Perron (2003) methodology, which endogenously detects multiple breakpoints in time series. The results reveal shared turning points—especially in the early 1980s, amid the debt crisis and rising U.S. interest rates—but also highlight the role of domestic factors such as political transitions and institutional reforms. By combining consistent macroeconomic indicators with a robust econometric approach, the study offers a comparative historical perspective on how global shocks and national shifts jointly shaped Latin America’s economic path.